Thomas COV · DEF · vs the top 5 you could switch to (≤ £4.4m = his sell price + bank)
Green = best in row · candidates are same-position likely starters ranked by projected points · fixture difficulty is baked into the projections and shown as the FDR row + tickers
| Stat | Thomas | Davis IPS | Ajayi HUL | Egan HUL | Dasilva COV | Giles HUL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| next 5 | NEWTOT (a)FULSUNEVE (a) | FULMCI (a)NFOHUL (a)BOU | EVEFUL (a)BREIPSARS (a) | EVEFUL (a)BREIPSARS (a) | NEWTOT (a)FULSUNEVE (a) | EVEFUL (a)BREIPSARS (a) |
| Projected pts (horizon, fixtures factored) | 19.42 | 24.92 | 20.74 | 20.34 | 20.10 | 19.53 |
| Projected pts (next GW) | 3.95 | 5.49 | 4.50 | 4.28 | 3.95 | 4.33 |
| Chance of starting | 90 | 100 | 90 | 88 | 99.62 | 90 |
| Avg fixture difficulty (next 5) | 2.80 | 3 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| Price £m | 4 | 4 | 4.20 | 4.10 | 4 | 4 |
| Ownership % | 8.60 | 6.90 | 14 | 7 | 0.70 | 2.90 |
| Form | 4.30 | 5.70 | 2.30 | 3 | 5.70 | 4 |
| Direct free-kick duty | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Corner/indirect FK duty | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| xG per 90 | 0.10 | 0.32 | 0.14 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| xA per 90 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| ICT index | 18.40 | 32.50 | 14.10 | 13.40 | 21.50 | 22.20 |
| Bonus points | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| BPS per 90 | 16.06 | 10.40 | 16.81 | 14.62 | 10.95 | 19.05 |
| Def. contributions per 90 (tackles+CBI+rec) | 14.00 | 6.80 | 9.15 | 14.62 | 7.50 | 7.70 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| Dreamteam appearances | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Points per £m (season) | 6 | 6.20 | 6.40 | 6.30 | 5 | 6 |
| Price change since GW1 (£m) | 0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.10 | 0 | 0 |
| Yellow cards | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Minutes | 437 | 450 | 423 | 437 | 444 | 444 |
answered with a constrained solve, not a vibe
Minutes override (judgment channel — edits the model's inputs, then everything re-solves)
Current override: 90% — Scout 2026-08-30: cramp only, no injury (Lampard); nailed Coventry starter
FPL's API publishes no pass or shot counts. Threat is the shot-volume proxy and Creativity the chance-creation proxy (both Opta-derived). Per-90 stats need minutes to mean anything — early season, lean on the projections and last season's reputation.