Thiago BRE · FWD · vs the top 5 you could switch to (≤ £8.2m)
Green = best in row · candidates are same-position likely starters ranked by projected points · fixture difficulty is baked into the projections and shown as the FDR row + tickers
| Stat | Thiago | Calvert-Lewin LEE | Wissa NEW | Gonzalo FUL | Barry EVE | McBurnie HUL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| next 5 | AVL (a)LIVHUL (a)NFOBHA (a) | ARS (a)MUNSUN (a)BOU (a)TOT | COV (a)AVLCRY (a)EVEFUL (a) | IPS (a)HULCOV (a)AVL (a)NEW | HUL (a)CHEARS (a)NEW (a)COV | EVEFUL (a)BREIPSARS (a) |
| Projected pts (horizon, fixtures factored) | 18.59 | 27.05 | 24.57 | 24.39 | 23.36 | 18.32 |
| Projected pts (next GW) | 4.36 | 4.44 | 5.44 | 4.80 | 3.57 | 3.21 |
| Chance of starting | 85 | 97.77 | 98.95 | 98.41 | 88 | 99.08 |
| Avg fixture difficulty (next 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.80 | 2.40 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| Price £m | 7.80 | 6 | 6.20 | 6 | 5.70 | 5.50 |
| Ownership % | 9.10 | 24.80 | 18.70 | 3.90 | 8.30 | 1.90 |
| Form | 2.70 | 4.30 | 1 | 2 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
| Penalty duty (1 = first choice) | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| xG per 90 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0.48 | 0.49 | 0.76 | 0.25 |
| xA per 90 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Threat (shot volume proxy) | 146 | 153 | 106 | 125 | 207 | 114 |
| Creativity (chance creation) | 43.60 | 29.60 | 60.60 | 46.80 | 72 | 69.10 |
| ICT index | 23.60 | 28.20 | 23.30 | 22.10 | 36.50 | 23 |
| Bonus points | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| BPS per 90 | 7.53 | 15.68 | 11.02 | 11.22 | 17.91 | 10.61 |
| Points per £m (season) | 1.30 | 3.70 | 2.40 | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.40 |
| Price change since GW1 (£m) | -0.20 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 |
| Yellow cards | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Minutes | 442 | 419 | 441 | 425 | 417 | 441 |
Minutes override (judgment channel — edits the model's inputs, then everything re-solves)
Current override: 85% — Scout 2026-08-23 (Scout Notes, BRE 3-0 TOT): re-anchored, SAME value. The 2026-08-10 premise ("back from World Cup, led line + scored vs Rennes") was 13 days old and pre-season; GW1 replaces it - Thiago started, played 82 in a 3-0 win, took the penalty, headed against the bar and went close at the near post. Stays 0.85 because nothing in the article makes him more or less nailed and Brentford carry no European fixtures. Explicit do-not-build re-validated: he missed the spot-kick "after scoring 10 of his previous 11" and keeps penalties_order 1 - never haircut a taker on a run of misses.
FPL's API publishes no pass or shot counts. Threat is the shot-volume proxy and Creativity the chance-creation proxy (both Opta-derived). Per-90 stats need minutes to mean anything — early season, lean on the projections and last season's reputation.