Saka ARS · MID · vs the top 5 you could switch to (≤ £9.9m)
Green = best in row · candidates are same-position likely starters ranked by projected points · fixture difficulty is baked into the projections and shown as the FDR row + tickers
| Stat | Saka | Tavernier BOU | Groß BHA | Mbeumo MUN | Gibbs-White NFO | Stach LEE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| next 5 | LEENFO (a)EVELIV (a)HUL | CHE (a)SUNMUN (a)LEEIPS (a) | SUN (a)CRYLIV (a)MCI (a)BRE | TOTLEE (a)BOUCHE (a)AVL | CRY (a)ARSIPS (a)BRE (a)MCI | ARS (a)MUNSUN (a)BOU (a)TOT |
| Projected pts (horizon, fixtures factored) | 26.43 | 34.97 | 31.86 | 31.25 | 30.07 | 25.46 |
| Projected pts (next GW) | 5.36 | 8.26 | 7.06 | 7.31 | 8.23 | 4.91 |
| Chance of starting | 85 | 96.15 | 100 | 98 | 92 | 99.75 |
| Avg fixture difficulty (next 5) | 3 | 3.20 | 3.40 | 3 | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| Price £m | 9.50 | 6.10 | 5.80 | 7.90 | 8 | 6 |
| Ownership % | 13.70 | 6.80 | 28.80 | 20.60 | 15.70 | 2.50 |
| Form | 5.80 | 6.70 | 10.70 | 4 | 4.30 | 3.30 |
| Penalty duty (1 = first choice) | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Direct free-kick duty | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Corner/indirect FK duty | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| xG per 90 | 0.70 | 0.36 | 0.35 | 0.61 | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| xA per 90 | 0.21 | 0.20 | 0.17 | 0.16 | 0.28 | 0.06 |
| Threat (shot volume proxy) | 240 | 147 | 84 | 156 | 78 | 55 |
| Creativity (chance creation) | 125.60 | 146.10 | 216 | 164.20 | 204.70 | 93.30 |
| ICT index | 52.10 | 45.50 | 50.80 | 44.20 | 40.60 | 26.50 |
| Bonus points | 4 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| BPS per 90 | 29.64 | 32.48 | 33.20 | 22 | 23.20 | 17.32 |
| Def. contributions per 90 (tackles+CBI+rec) | 6.71 | 8.92 | 5.20 | 5.20 | 4.20 | 12.28 |
| Dreamteam appearances | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Points per £m (season) | 3.40 | 5.10 | 8.10 | 3.20 | 3.50 | 4.50 |
| Price change since GW1 (£m) | 0 | 0.10 | 0.30 | -0.10 | 0 | 0 |
| Yellow cards | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Minutes | 416 | 424 | 450 | 450 | 450 | 447 |
Minutes override (judgment channel — edits the model's inputs, then everything re-solves)
Current override: 85% — Scout 2026-08-22 (Scout Notes, ARS 3-0 COV): Saka started GW1, scored, played 67 minutes and 'looked really lively'; withdrawn only for a 'partial breather' at 3-0. Supersedes the 08-17 time-box (0.45 through GW1, then 0.80), both of whose premises are now spent - the late-WC fitness build is complete, and 'Predicted XI omits him' is dead because he started and the man he replaced (Madueke) is the one on the bench. 0.85 = nailed starter net of the European haircut.
FPL's API publishes no pass or shot counts. Threat is the shot-volume proxy and Creativity the chance-creation proxy (both Opta-derived). Per-90 stats need minutes to mean anything — early season, lean on the projections and last season's reputation.