Calafiori ARS · DEF · vs the top 5 you could switch to (≤ £6.0m = his sell price + bank)
Green = best in row · candidates are same-position likely starters ranked by projected points · fixture difficulty is baked into the projections and shown as the FDR row + tickers
| Stat | Calafiori | Schuster BRE | Bogle LEE | Muharemović LEE | De Cuyper BHA | Davis IPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| next 5 | LEENFO (a)EVELIV (a)HUL | AVL (a)LIVHUL (a)NFOBHA (a) | ARS (a)MUNSUN (a)BOU (a)TOT | ARS (a)MUNSUN (a)BOU (a)TOT | SUN (a)CRYLIV (a)MCI (a)BRE | FULMCI (a)NFOHUL (a)BOU |
| Projected pts (horizon, fixtures factored) | 21.18 | 28.86 | 28.71 | 26.79 | 26.14 | 24.92 |
| Projected pts (next GW) | 4.43 | 5.95 | 4.89 | 5.23 | 5.65 | 5.49 |
| Chance of starting | 90 | 85 | 94.64 | 100 | 90 | 100 |
| Avg fixture difficulty (next 5) | 3 | 3.20 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3 |
| Price £m | 5.80 | 4.50 | 4.60 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Ownership % | 50.50 | 0.30 | 7.20 | 4.30 | 27.70 | 6.90 |
| Form | 5 | 7 | 11.30 | 5.70 | 7 | 5.70 |
| Direct free-kick duty | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 |
| Corner/indirect FK duty | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| xG per 90 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 0.34 | 0.10 | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| xA per 90 | 0.13 | 0.19 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| ICT index | 19.10 | 12 | 26.20 | 20.20 | 33.80 | 32.50 |
| Bonus points | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
| BPS per 90 | 16.44 | 20.99 | 30.08 | 20.20 | 28.09 | 10.40 |
| Def. contributions per 90 (tackles+CBI+rec) | 6.71 | 15.65 | 6.66 | 14.80 | 7.23 | 6.80 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Dreamteam appearances | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Points per £m (season) | 5 | 4.70 | 9.10 | 5.40 | 7.60 | 6.20 |
| Price change since GW1 (£m) | 0.30 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 |
| Yellow cards | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Minutes | 416 | 253 | 365 | 450 | 423 | 450 |
answered with a constrained solve, not a vibe
Minutes override (judgment channel — edits the model's inputs, then everything re-solves)
Current override: 90% — Scout 2026-09-10: unused sub in Napoli UCL win, fully rested and fit for GW4
FPL's API publishes no pass or shot counts. Threat is the shot-volume proxy and Creativity the chance-creation proxy (both Opta-derived). Per-90 stats need minutes to mean anything — early season, lean on the projections and last season's reputation.