Rogers CHE · MID · vs the top 5 you could switch to (≤ £8.0m = his sell price + bank)
Green = best in row · candidates are same-position likely starters ranked by projected points · fixture difficulty is baked into the projections and shown as the FDR row + tickers
| Stat | Rogers | Tavernier BOU | Groß BHA | Mbeumo MUN | Gibbs-White NFO | Stach LEE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| next 5 | BOUEVE (a)TOTMUNSUN (a) | CHE (a)SUNMUN (a)LEEIPS (a) | SUN (a)CRYLIV (a)MCI (a)BRE | TOTLEE (a)BOUCHE (a)AVL | CRY (a)ARSIPS (a)BRE (a)MCI | ARS (a)MUNSUN (a)BOU (a)TOT |
| Projected pts (horizon, fixtures factored) | 22.38 | 34.97 | 31.86 | 31.25 | 30.07 | 25.46 |
| Projected pts (next GW) | 5.19 | 8.26 | 7.06 | 7.31 | 8.23 | 4.91 |
| Chance of starting | 90 | 96.15 | 100 | 98 | 92 | 99.75 |
| Avg fixture difficulty (next 5) | 3 | 3.20 | 3.40 | 3 | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| Price £m | 7.70 | 6.10 | 5.80 | 7.90 | 8 | 6 |
| Ownership % | 40.50 | 6.80 | 28.80 | 20.60 | 15.70 | 2.50 |
| Form | 5.30 | 6.70 | 10.70 | 4 | 4.30 | 3.30 |
| Penalty duty (1 = first choice) | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Direct free-kick duty | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Corner/indirect FK duty | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| xG per 90 | 0.35 | 0.36 | 0.35 | 0.61 | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| xA per 90 | 0.25 | 0.20 | 0.17 | 0.16 | 0.28 | 0.06 |
| Threat (shot volume proxy) | 140 | 147 | 84 | 156 | 78 | 55 |
| Creativity (chance creation) | 140.10 | 146.10 | 216 | 164.20 | 204.70 | 93.30 |
| ICT index | 43.90 | 45.50 | 50.80 | 44.20 | 40.60 | 26.50 |
| Bonus points | 2 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| BPS per 90 | 27.80 | 32.48 | 33.20 | 22 | 23.20 | 17.32 |
| Def. contributions per 90 (tackles+CBI+rec) | 6.38 | 8.92 | 5.20 | 5.20 | 4.20 | 12.28 |
| Dreamteam appearances | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Points per £m (season) | 3.80 | 5.10 | 8.10 | 3.20 | 3.50 | 4.50 |
| Price change since GW1 (£m) | 0.20 | 0.10 | 0.30 | -0.10 | 0 | 0 |
| Yellow cards | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Minutes | 437 | 424 | 450 | 450 | 450 | 447 |
answered with a constrained solve, not a vibe
Minutes override (judgment channel — edits the model's inputs, then everything re-solves)
Current override: 90% — Fix 2026-09-01 (GW3 transfer tips): started both GW1 GW2 in full (171 mins), most chances created in GW2 (4), most attempted assists over opening 2 GWs (9), xFPL 7.6 - supersedes stale 08-16 pre-season 0.70
FPL's API publishes no pass or shot counts. Threat is the shot-volume proxy and Creativity the chance-creation proxy (both Opta-derived). Per-90 stats need minutes to mean anything — early season, lean on the projections and last season's reputation.