Abraham AVL · FWD · vs the top 5 you could switch to (≤ £5.9m)
Green = best in row · candidates are same-position likely starters ranked by projected points · fixture difficulty is baked into the projections and shown as the FDR row + tickers
| Stat | Abraham | Barry EVE | McBurnie HUL | Kostoulas BHA | Delap NFO | Igor Jesus NFO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| next 5 | BRENEW (a)MCIFULMUN (a) | HUL (a)CHEARS (a)NEW (a)COV | EVEFUL (a)BREIPSARS (a) | SUN (a)CRYLIV (a)MCI (a)BRE | CRY (a)ARSIPS (a)BRE (a)MCI | CRY (a)ARSIPS (a)BRE (a)MCI |
| Projected pts (horizon, fixtures factored) | 2.91 | 23.36 | 18.32 | 14.24 | 12.30 | 10.90 |
| Projected pts (next GW) | 0.60 | 3.57 | 3.21 | 3.08 | 3.30 | 2.81 |
| Chance of starting | 60 | 88 | 99.08 | 70 | 60 | 60 |
| Avg fixture difficulty (next 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.40 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| Price £m | 5.50 | 5.70 | 5.50 | 5.60 | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| Ownership % | 0.20 | 8.30 | 1.90 | 4.10 | 2.70 | 2.60 |
| Form | 1 | 3.30 | 2.30 | 7.30 | 2.70 | 3 |
| Penalty duty (1 = first choice) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| xG per 90 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.25 | 0.34 | 0.29 | 0.44 |
| xA per 90 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| Threat (shot volume proxy) | 2 | 207 | 114 | 127 | 71 | 100 |
| Creativity (chance creation) | 6.20 | 72 | 69.10 | 39.10 | 68.60 | 40.70 |
| ICT index | 1.10 | 36.50 | 23 | 26.10 | 17.90 | 19.60 |
| Bonus points | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| BPS per 90 | 16.48 | 17.91 | 10.61 | 26.77 | 15.92 | 18.56 |
| Dreamteam appearances | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Points per £m (season) | 0.70 | 3.50 | 2.40 | 5 | 1.60 | 2.10 |
| Price change since GW1 (£m) | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.10 | -0.20 |
| Yellow cards | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Minutes | 71 | 417 | 441 | 353 | 277 | 257 |
Minutes override (judgment channel — edits the model's inputs, then everything re-solves)
Current override: 60% — Scout 2026-08-23 (BHA 4-0 AVL): Emery says Abraham 'has a small injury and he is going to join us again', flagged as potentially back for Arsenal in GW2; FPL now d/75%. Villa have no other fit striker - Watkins AWOL, Madjo and Manzambi out. Supersedes the 08-16 0.15 set on his friendly withdrawal.
FPL's API publishes no pass or shot counts. Threat is the shot-volume proxy and Creativity the chance-creation proxy (both Opta-derived). Per-90 stats need minutes to mean anything — early season, lean on the projections and last season's reputation.